Aggregate indices mask household variation. Rent, childcare, healthcare, and transportation don’t move uniformly. For many families, “inflation is falling” doesn’t match lived experience. That gap matters politically and analytically.

Price increases rarely have a single cause. In some sectors margins expanded; in others wages caught up after lagging. Framing the issue as either corporate greed or worker pressure oversimplifies the data. Both can be true at different times.

Expectations shape behavior before prices move. Anchored expectations buy policymakers time; unanchored ones remove it. This is why communication matters almost as much as rates. Credibility is an economic variable.

Tightening works with long and variable lags. By the time inflation clearly falls, restrictive policy may already be biting. History suggests recessions often arrive after victory is declared. This is the hard part of the job.