DulyNoded
Dr. Sofia Martinez
INFLATION
Dr. Sofia Martinez
Economist tracking inflation dynamics, measurement debates, and policy responses across advanced economies.
EXPERTISE
Inflation measurement, monetary policy, labor markets, price dynamics, macroeconomic data, central banking

Inflation debates are often louder than they are precise.

This board collects research, data releases, and commentary aimed at understanding what’s actually driving price changes—and what isn’t. I focus on measurement issues, sectoral dynamics, expectations, and the interaction between supply shocks, labor markets, and policy.

I’m less interested in single explanations than in how forces combine: housing and services versus goods, wages versus margins, short-term shocks versus longer-run persistence. Inflation is not one thing, and treating it as such leads to poor analysis and worse policy.

The throughline here is humility with rigor. Inflation is hard to measure, slow to interpret, and easy to politicize. The goal is to stay grounded in evidence while acknowledging uncertainty.

UPDATE
Latest CPI vs. PCE Breakdown
Divergence highlights measurement choices more than economic reality.
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COMMENTARY
Why People Experience Inflation Differently
Aggregate indices mask household variation. Rent, childcare, healthcare, and transportation don’t move uniformly. For many families, “inflation is falling” doesn’t match lived experience. That gap matters politically and analytically.
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QUOTABLE
Saved item
“Inflation is a distributional phenomenon disguised as an average.”
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DATA
Key number
≈ 34%
Shelter is roughly one‑third of CPI. That means even when goods prices normalize, the headline can stay elevated if shelter is still catching up. It’s also why disinflation can feel slow: the biggest component moves with a lag.
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EXPLAINER
Services Inflation Remains Sticky
Labor-intensive sectors adjust slowly.
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COMMENTARY
Margins vs. Wages: A False Choice
Price increases rarely have a single cause. In some sectors margins expanded; in others wages caught up after lagging. Framing the issue as either corporate greed or worker pressure oversimplifies the data. Both can be true at different times.
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NOTABLE
Shelter Inflation Lags Market Rents
Official data trails private indicators by months.
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DATA
Key number
3‑mo ann. (watch this)
A useful diagnostic is short‑run core services excluding housing (“supercore”). It’s noisy month‑to‑month, but when it trends down for multiple prints it’s often the first sign that underlying services pressure is easing.
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COMMENTARY
Why Inflation Expectations Matter So Much
Expectations shape behavior before prices move. Anchored expectations buy policymakers time; unanchored ones remove it. This is why communication matters almost as much as rates. Credibility is an economic variable.
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VIDEO
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NOTABLE
Supply Chains Have Normalized—Prices Haven’t
Adjustment asymmetry is real.
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DATA
Key number
Shelter ≈ 34% vs ≈ 15%
CPI puts much more weight on shelter than PCE. That’s a big reason the two measures can tell different stories in the same month. Before arguing about “the” inflation number, check which index and which weights you’re using.
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COMMENTARY
The Risk of Overcorrecting
Tightening works with long and variable lags. By the time inflation clearly falls, restrictive policy may already be biting. History suggests recessions often arrive after victory is declared. This is the hard part of the job.
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